ATP tennis predict — Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Jenson Brooksby

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 09:30

Predicted probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Spain

69.13%

Jenson Brooksby

USA

30.87%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.89

Market probability

67.21% / 32.79%

Why This Prediction?

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2044 vs 1881), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1968 vs 1842) and a stronger serve (64.2% vs 59.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2044.5 Elo 1880.5

1967.7 Elo (surface) 1841.7

210 Wins 97

116 Wins (surface) 66

12 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.927 Dominance ratio 0.812

26 Rank 102

27.4 Age 26.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Jenson Brooksby

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jenson Brooksby

1st Serve In %

68.3%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.2%

70.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.4%

45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.9%

29.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.3%

44.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.71

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.3%

62.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%

67.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%

48.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.9%

29.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.1%

51.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.28

0.21

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jenson Brooksby

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

32.7%

35.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.7%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

50.5%

37.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1 – 1 Jenson Brooksby

Hard Basel · 2025-10-20

R16

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #18

Jenson Brooksby #55

6-7(6) 6-4 7-5

4 Aces 6

1 Double Faults 2

120 Service Points 97

76 First Serve In 67

55 First Serve Won 47

23 Second Serve Won 17

5 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Antwerp · 2021-10-18

QF

Jenson Brooksby #70

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #44

7-5 6-0

0 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 4

61 Service Points 76

36 First Serve In 51

26 First Serve Won 30

13 Second Serve Won 7

3 Break Points Saved 10

4 Break Points Faced 15