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Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Frances Tiafoe — Prediction

ATP Hard Shanghai · 3. round 13:30

Predicted probability

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Spain

46.68%

Frances Tiafoe

USA

53.32%

Average Odds

1.88  /  1.90

Market probability

50.26%  /  49.74%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

2050.3 Elo 2101.1
1976.3 Elo (surface) 2036.4
211 Wins 303
117 Wins (surface) 211
12 Last 15 form 12
1 Head-to-head wins 3
0.927 Dominance ratio 0.885
26 Rank 8
27.4 Age 28.7
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–3L · 76.9%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Frances Tiafoe

1st Serve In %

69.1%
54.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%
73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%
45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.0%
25.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%
47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.70
0.82

Double Faults per Service Game

0.16
0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

66.3%
62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.3%
73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.1%
51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

39.9%
31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

56.1%
47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.28
0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30
0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Frances Tiafoe

Break Points Saved %

61.8%
56.2%

Break Points Converted %

31.5%
37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.7%
70.6%

Break Points Converted %

50.5%
43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 1 – 3 Frances Tiafoe

Hard Miami Masters · 2025-03-19

R64

Frances Tiafoe #17

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #39

7-5 7-6(5)
10 Aces 3
1 Double Faults 2
74 Service Points 95
43 First Serve In 67
37 First Serve Won 45
15 Second Serve Won 12
5 Break Points Saved 8
6 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Acapulco · 2025-02-24

R16

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #48

Frances Tiafoe #18

6-3 6-7(6) 6-3
10 Aces 10
2 Double Faults 3
96 Service Points 98
69 First Serve In 59
51 First Serve Won 42
14 Second Serve Won 17
3 Break Points Saved 10
6 Break Points Faced 15
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2024-08-12

R64

Frances Tiafoe #26

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #53

6-3 7-6(6)
6 Aces 3
3 Double Faults 6
67 Service Points 85
26 First Serve In 54
20 First Serve Won 36
23 Second Serve Won 10
1 Break Points Saved 10
3 Break Points Faced 14
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Estoril · 2022-04-25

QF

Frances Tiafoe #29

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina #28

7-6(5) 5-7 7-5
5 Aces 0
1 Double Faults 6
140 Service Points 123
89 First Serve In 92
57 First Serve Won 58
28 Second Serve Won 18
13 Break Points Saved 4
17 Break Points Faced 8
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina — Last 10

W L W W W W L W L W

Frances Tiafoe — Last 10

W L W L W W W W W W