ATP tennis predict — Alec Deckers vs Luca Potenza

Challenger Hard Roehampton 2 challenger · 1. round 13:30

Predicted probability

Alec Deckers

Netherlands

56.22%

Luca Potenza

Italy

43.78%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.24

Market probability

58.49% / 41.51%

Why This Prediction?

Alec Deckers is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1566 vs 1495), a stronger serve (64.7% vs 60.6% of service points won) and more aces per game (0.36 vs 0.09).

Player Comparison

1565.8 Elo 1495.3

1548.2 Elo (surface) 1509.9

13 Wins (Challenger) 51

7 Wins (surface) 28

9 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.831 Dominance ratio 1.119

558 Rank 484

26.3 Age 26.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alec Deckers

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-06.

Luca Potenza

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-21.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alec Deckers Luca Potenza

1st Serve In %

57.2%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.3%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.2%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.85

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

58.7%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.3%

65.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.6%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.4%

58.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.79

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alec Deckers Luca Potenza

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

—

Break Points Converted %

30.8%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

68.5%

63.0%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alec Deckers 0 – 0 Luca Potenza

Hard Roehampton 2 challenger · 2026-08-25

1. round

Alec Deckers #558

Luca Potenza #484

7-6 6-3

14 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 1

62 Service Points 67

30 First Serve In 25

24 First Serve Won 20

2 Second Serve Won 6

0 Break Points Saved 1

1 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Alec Deckers vs Luca Potenza — Prediction