ATP tennis predict — Alastair Gray vs Maximus Jones

Challenger Hard Mallorca challenger · qualification - 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

Alastair Gray

Great Britain

42.97%

Maximus Jones

Thailand

57.03%

Average Odds

1.23 / 3.69

Market probability

75.00% / 25.00%

Why This Prediction?

Maximus Jones is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1487 vs 1440), more wins on hard courts (1 vs 0) and a stronger return game (38.0% vs 31.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1492.9 Elo 1461.0

1440.4 Elo (surface) 1486.9

42 Wins (Challenger) 45

30 Wins (surface) 34

8 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.744 Dominance ratio 1.054

287 Rank 489

28.2 Age 22.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alastair Gray

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Maximus Jones

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alastair Gray Maximus Jones

1st Serve In %

60.7%

46.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.9%

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.4%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

26.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

41.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.48

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

1.75

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

68.3%

60.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.0%

71.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

41.5%

46.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%

27.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.0%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alastair Gray Maximus Jones

Break Points Saved %

65.9%

58.3%

Break Points Converted %

31.3%

100.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.6%

51.7%

Break Points Converted %

38.8%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alastair Gray 0 – 0 Maximus Jones

Hard Mallorca challenger · 2026-08-31

qualification - 1. round

Maximus Jones #489

Alastair Gray #287

6-2 7-5

3 Aces 4

7 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 64

33 First Serve In 42

21 First Serve Won 29

9 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

3.7 Average Odds 1.2

Alastair Gray vs Maximus Jones — Prediction