ATP tennis predict — Alan Magadan vs Rio Noguchi

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · qualification - quarterfinal 05:45

Predicted probability

Alan Magadan

Mexico

40.01%

Rio Noguchi

Japan

59.99%

Average Odds

2.09 / 1.70

Market probability

44.85% / 55.15%

Why This Prediction?

Rio Noguchi is the favorite because he has a stronger return game (48.3% vs 36.5% of return points won), a higher Elo rating (1608 vs 1583) and more wins on hard courts (117 vs 10).

Player Comparison

1583.3 Elo 1608.2

1570.7 Elo (surface) 1614.5

17 Wins (Challenger) 128

10 Wins (surface) 117

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.848 Dominance ratio 1.245

561 Rank 213

25.2 Age 27.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alan Magadan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Rio Noguchi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–7L · 41.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alan Magadan Rio Noguchi

1st Serve In %

52.5%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

61.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.2%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.19

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%

60.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

51.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.1%

64.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alan Magadan Rio Noguchi

Break Points Saved %

36.1%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

62.6%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

45.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alan Magadan 0 – 0 Rio Noguchi

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-19

qualification - quarterfinal

Alan Magadan #561

Rio Noguchi #213

6-3 7-6

4 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

75 Service Points 71

49 First Serve In 45

36 First Serve Won 29

13 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 7

5 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.1 Average Odds 1.7

Alan Magadan vs Rio Noguchi — Prediction