ATP tennis predict — Alan Magadan vs Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Challenger Hard Cancun challenger · 1. round 03:15

Predicted probability

Alan Magadan

Mexico

71.43%

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Mexico

28.57%

Average Odds

1.54 / 2.38

Market probability

60.71% / 39.29%

Why This Prediction?

Alan Magadan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1612 vs 1438), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1606 vs 1499) and fewer double faults per game (0.13 vs 0.23).

Player Comparison

1612.3 Elo 1438.4

1605.9 Elo (surface) 1499.0

18 Wins (Challenger) 33

11 Wins (surface) 17

9 Last 15 form 5

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.897 Dominance ratio 0.819

561 Rank 470

25.2 Age 27.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Alan Magadan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

13 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alan Magadan Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

1st Serve In %

52.5%

64.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.1%

64.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.4%

47.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.8%

24.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.2%

58.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

65.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.1%

69.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

42.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

32.3%

32.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.1%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.52

0.48

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Alan Magadan Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Break Points Saved %

36.1%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

37.9%

46.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.5%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

34.2%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Alan Magadan 0 – 1 Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano

Hard Cancun challenger · 2026-08-20

1. round

Alan Magadan #561

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #470

4-6 6-0 6-4

7 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 3

97 Service Points 107

68 First Serve In 73

43 First Serve Won 41

15 Second Serve Won 13

10 Break Points Saved 12

13 Break Points Faced 18

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.4

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-27

qualification - quarterfinal

Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano #498

Alan Magadan #579

6-3 7-6

6 Aces 12

2 Double Faults 4

71 Service Points 74

43 First Serve In 36

31 First Serve Won 30

19 Second Serve Won 14

7 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.4 Average Odds 1.6

Alan Magadan vs Juan Alejandro Hernandez Serrano — Prediction