ATP tennis predict — Akira Santillan vs Yaroslav Demin

Challenger Hard Wuning 3 challenger · R16 05:05

Predicted probability

Akira Santillan

Australia

82.40%

Yaroslav Demin

Russia

17.60%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.15

Market probability

56.58% / 43.42%

Why This Prediction?

Akira Santillan is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1566 vs 1372), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1550 vs 1311) and more wins on hard courts (116 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1565.6 Elo 1372.4

1549.7 Elo (surface) 1311.2

164 Wins (Challenger) 4

116 Wins (surface) 2

8 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.002 Dominance ratio 0.838

324 Rank 653

29.4 Age 21.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Akira Santillan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–9L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Yaroslav Demin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

3 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Akira Santillan Yaroslav Demin

1st Serve In %

59.8%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.78

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.8%

61.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.4%

65.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

44.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.8%

30.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.8%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.29

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.49

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Akira Santillan Yaroslav Demin

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

—

Break Points Converted %

45.2%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

60.8%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

51.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Akira Santillan and Yaroslav Demin have never played each other.

Akira Santillan vs Yaroslav Demin — Prediction