ATP tennis predict — Akira Santillan vs Luka Pavlovic

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · 1. round 05:00

Predicted probability

Akira Santillan

Australia

42.92%

Luka Pavlovic

France

57.08%

Average Odds

2.20 / 1.59

Market probability

41.95% / 58.05%

Why This Prediction?

Luka Pavlovic is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1646 vs 1565), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1616 vs 1548) and more aces per game (0.40 vs 0.32).

Player Comparison

1564.8 Elo 1645.9

1548.1 Elo (surface) 1615.9

163 Wins (Challenger) 57

115 Wins (surface) 11

8 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.002 Dominance ratio 0.898

317 Rank 205

29.4 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Akira Santillan

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–8L · 27.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Luka Pavlovic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Akira Santillan Luka Pavlovic

1st Serve In %

59.8%

53.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

73.3%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.5%

45.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.9%

24.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.4%

43.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.78

0.84

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.35

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.8%

63.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.3%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.0%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.6%

40.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.45

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Akira Santillan Luka Pavlovic

Break Points Saved %

53.6%

63.6%

Break Points Converted %

45.2%

29.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

52.1%

62.1%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

31.9%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Akira Santillan 0 – 1 Luka Pavlovic

Clay Brasov challenger · 2026-06-30

1. round

Luka Pavlovic #217

Akira Santillan #310

7-6 6-3

12 Aces 2

5 Double Faults 7

72 Service Points 69

51 First Serve In 39

38 First Serve Won 31

13 Second Serve Won 13

3 Break Points Saved 4

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Akira Santillan vs Luka Pavlovic — Prediction