ATP tennis predict — Ajeet Rai vs Quinn Vandecasteele

Challenger Hard Brownsburg challenger · qualification - round of 16 18:30

Predicted probability

Ajeet Rai

New Zealand

40.32%

Quinn Vandecasteele

USA

59.68%

Average Odds

3.19 / 1.31

Market probability

29.11% / 70.89%

Why This Prediction?

Quinn Vandecasteele is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1446 vs 1371), a higher Elo rating (1423 vs 1361) and fewer double faults per game (0.16 vs 0.20).

Player Comparison

1361.2 Elo 1423.0

1370.8 Elo (surface) 1445.6

24 Wins (Challenger) 46

22 Wins (surface) 39

5 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.918 Dominance ratio 0.942

1011 Rank 471

27.6 Age 23.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ajeet Rai

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-08-09.

Quinn Vandecasteele

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ajeet Rai Quinn Vandecasteele

1st Serve In %

54.0%

54.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

70.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.9%

42.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.1%

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

38.1%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.84

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.8%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.1%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

33.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.7%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.39

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ajeet Rai Quinn Vandecasteele

Break Points Saved %

55.1%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

32.3%

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.2%

58.2%

Break Points Converted %

42.6%

44.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ajeet Rai 0 – 0 Quinn Vandecasteele

Hard Brownsburg challenger · 2026-08-10

qualification - round of 16

Quinn Vandecasteele #471

Ajeet Rai #1011

6-3 6-2

- Aces -

- Double Faults -

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

- First Serve Won -

- Second Serve Won -

- Break Points Saved -

- Break Points Faced -

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.2

Ajeet Rai vs Quinn Vandecasteele — Prediction