ATP tennis predict — Aidan Mayo vs Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin

Challenger Hard Kingston 2 challenger · qualification - 1. round 20:30

Predicted probability

Aidan Mayo

USA

90.24%

Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin

Brazil

9.76%

Average Odds

1.06 / 7.67

Market probability

87.86% / 12.14%

Why This Prediction?

Aidan Mayo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1574 vs 1387), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1560 vs 1500) and more career match wins (86 vs 2).

Player Comparison

1573.8 Elo 1386.7

1560.3 Elo (surface) 1500

86 Wins (Challenger) 2

73 Wins (surface) 0

6 Last 15 form 2

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.937 Dominance ratio 0.840

616 Rank 1147

23.3 Age 27.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aidan Mayo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

1 matches with market odds since 2026-08-23.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aidan Mayo Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin

1st Serve In %

55.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.32

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.2%

57.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.5%

64.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.4%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.7%

30.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.7%

45.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.31

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aidan Mayo Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin

Break Points Saved %

61.8%

—

Break Points Converted %

45.5%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

69.4%

54.9%

Break Points Converted %

47.5%

38.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aidan Mayo 0 – 0 Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin

Hard Kingston 2 challenger · 2026-08-23

qualification - 1. round

Aidan Mayo #616

Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin #1147

6-3 6-2

3 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 4

42 Service Points 58

21 First Serve In 32

18 First Serve Won 16

13 Second Serve Won 12

1 Break Points Saved 4

2 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.1 Average Odds 7.7

Aidan Mayo vs Joao Vitor Goncalves Ceolin — Prediction