ATP tennis predict — Aidan Mayo vs Colton Smith

Challenger Hard Columbus 3 challenger · R16 18:30

Predicted probability

Aidan Mayo

USA

41.12%

Colton Smith

USA

58.88%

Average Odds

2.60 / 1.45

Market probability

35.80% / 64.20%

Why This Prediction?

Colton Smith is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1738 vs 1651), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1700 vs 1649) and a stronger return game (40.8% vs 39.4% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1651.1 Elo 1737.9

1649.4 Elo (surface) 1699.5

94 Wins (Challenger) 50

81 Wins (surface) 39

10 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.120 Dominance ratio 1.047

356 Rank 211

23.4 Age 23.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aidan Mayo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–6L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

31 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Colton Smith

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-27.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aidan Mayo Colton Smith

1st Serve In %

55.9%

62.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.1%

45.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

31.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.3%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.32

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.4%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.0%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.9%

51.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.3%

33.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.8%

47.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.61

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aidan Mayo Colton Smith

Break Points Saved %

61.8%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

45.5%

38.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

71.4%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

44.6%

41.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aidan Mayo 1 – 0 Colton Smith

Hard Lincoln CH · 2024-08-05

R16

Aidan Mayo #296

Colton Smith #631

6-3 7-6(3)

0 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 5

73 Service Points 75

40 First Serve In 48

31 First Serve Won 31

18 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Aidan Mayo vs Colton Smith — Prediction