ATP tennis predict — Aidan Kim vs Karl Poling

Challenger Hard Lexington challenger · qualification - 1. round

Predicted probability

Aidan Kim

USA

35.06%

Karl Poling

USA

64.94%

Average Odds

1.33 / 3.08

Market probability

69.84% / 30.16%

Why This Prediction?

Karl Poling is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1552 vs 1423), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1560 vs 1430) and more wins on hard courts (1 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1423.2 Elo 1551.6

1430.3 Elo (surface) 1560.5

5 Wins (Challenger) 33

5 Wins (surface) 23

5 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.914 Dominance ratio 0.966

581 Rank 491

21.7 Age 27.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aidan Kim

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

10 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Karl Poling

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–5L · 28.6%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aidan Kim Karl Poling

1st Serve In %

—

65.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

66.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

48.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

19.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

32.4%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.16

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

54.8%

65.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

51.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.3%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

44.0%

44.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.67

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.43

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aidan Kim Karl Poling

Break Points Saved %

—

67.9%

Break Points Converted %

—

57.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

67.2%

60.7%

Break Points Converted %

31.2%

37.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aidan Kim 0 – 0 Karl Poling

Hard Lexington challenger · 2026-08-02

qualification - 1. round

Aidan Kim #581

Karl Poling #491

6-2 6-4

7 Aces 1

2 Double Faults 2

59 Service Points 54

32 First Serve In 29

23 First Serve Won 17

17 Second Serve Won 12

4 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.1

Aidan Kim vs Karl Poling — Prediction