ATP tennis predict — Adrian Mannarino vs Pablo Carreno Busta

ATP Hard Beijing · qualification - quarterfinal 07:30

Predicted probability

Adrian Mannarino

France

38.07%

Pablo Carreno Busta

Spain

61.93%

Average Odds

2.41 / 1.53

Market probability

38.83% / 61.17%

Why This Prediction?

Pablo Carreno Busta is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1910 vs 1829), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1825 vs 1799) and a better head-to-head record against Adrian Mannarino (2-0).

Player Comparison

1829.1 Elo 1910.0

1799.4 Elo (surface) 1825.2

416 Wins 336

284 Wins (surface) 186

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 2

0.898 Dominance ratio 0.904

81 Rank 66

38.2 Age 35.2

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–5L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Pablo Carreno Busta

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adrian Mannarino Pablo Carreno Busta

1st Serve In %

52.4%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

43.1%

48.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.2%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.0%

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

68.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

38.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.3%

52.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.12

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adrian Mannarino Pablo Carreno Busta

Break Points Saved %

60.3%

47.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

52.4%

Break Points Converted %

47.4%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Adrian Mannarino 0 – 2 Pablo Carreno Busta

Hard Rotterdam · 2020-02-10

R32

Pablo Carreno Busta #30

Adrian Mannarino #44

7-5 6-7(3) 6-4

6 Aces 12

2 Double Faults 2

96 Service Points 119

69 First Serve In 71

51 First Serve Won 52

16 Second Serve Won 22

0 Break Points Saved 13

2 Break Points Faced 17

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Barcelona · 2018-04-23

R16

Pablo Carreno Busta #11

Adrian Mannarino #27

6-2 4-6 7-6(6)

3 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 0

99 Service Points 109

64 First Serve In 74

38 First Serve Won 40

20 Second Serve Won 19

2 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 11