ATP tennis predict — Adrian Mannarino vs Nikoloz Basilashvili

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 07:35

Predicted probability

Adrian Mannarino

France

43.15%

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Georgia

56.85%

Average Odds

1.85 / 1.94

Market probability

51.19% / 48.81%

Why This Prediction?

Nikoloz Basilashvili is the favorite, but no single statistic stands out — the edge comes from a broad combination of smaller factors.

Player Comparison

1823.4 Elo 1808.6

1791.4 Elo (surface) 1770.4

416 Wins 253

284 Wins (surface) 148

6 Last 15 form 8

2 Head-to-head wins 1

0.898 Dominance ratio 0.919

83 Rank 124

38.3 Age 34.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Nikoloz Basilashvili

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-06-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adrian Mannarino Nikoloz Basilashvili

1st Serve In %

52.1%

49.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.7%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.6%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.7%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.9%

39.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.56

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.36

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

51.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

27.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.3%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.74

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.53

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adrian Mannarino Nikoloz Basilashvili

Break Points Saved %

61.5%

72.9%

Break Points Converted %

40.4%

47.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

59.0%

Break Points Converted %

47.4%

42.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Adrian Mannarino 2 – 1 Nikoloz Basilashvili

Hard Rennes CH · 2024-09-09

R16

Adrian Mannarino #46

Nikoloz Basilashvili #347

7-6(5) 3-6 6-3

3 Aces 15

0 Double Faults 1

102 Service Points 93

70 First Serve In 58

51 First Serve Won 47

18 Second Serve Won 18

4 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Paris Masters · 2021-11-01

R64

Adrian Mannarino #59

Nikoloz Basilashvili #21

6-2 6-4

3 Aces 3

0 Double Faults 1

49 Service Points 52

28 First Serve In 30

23 First Serve Won 13

9 Second Serve Won 11

3 Break Points Saved 1

5 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Sofia · 2017-02-06

R32

Nikoloz Basilashvili #87

Adrian Mannarino #56

7-6(7) 7-6(3)

4 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 4

81 Service Points 80

50 First Serve In 49

38 First Serve Won 32

11 Second Serve Won 15

1 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Adrian Mannarino vs Nikoloz Basilashvili — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Adrian Mannarino — Last 10

Nikoloz Basilashvili — Last 10