ATP tennis predict — Adrian Mannarino vs Learner Tien

ATP Hard Washington · 1. round

Predicted probability

Adrian Mannarino

France

21.67%

Learner Tien

USA

78.33%

Average Odds

4.19 / 1.22

Market probability

22.55% / 77.45%

Why This Prediction?

Learner Tien is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1856 vs 1685) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1685.1 Elo 1855.6

1735.4 Elo (surface) 1710.7

411 Wins 72

279 Wins (surface) 54

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.965 Dominance ratio 0.905

47 Rank 16

38.1 Age 20.6

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Learner Tien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adrian Mannarino Learner Tien

1st Serve In %

54.5%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.6%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.9%

43.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.2%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.37

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.3%

59.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adrian Mannarino Learner Tien

Break Points Saved %

53.3%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

35.4%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

47.4%

40.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Adrian Mannarino 0 – 0 Learner Tien

Hard Washington · 2026-07-28

1. round

Adrian Mannarino #47

Learner Tien #16

7-5 6-4

5 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 4

54 Service Points 66

32 First Serve In 42

28 First Serve Won 34

16 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 0

0 Break Points Faced 2

10 Winners 14

18 Unforced Errors 42

4.2 Average Odds 1.2

Adrian Mannarino vs Learner Tien — Prediction