ATP tennis predict — Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio Cobolli

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 06:10

Predicted probability

Adrian Mannarino

France

23.72%

Flavio Cobolli

Italy

76.28%

Average Odds

2.58 / 1.49

Market probability

36.61% / 63.39%

Why This Prediction?

Flavio Cobolli is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2036 vs 1831), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1894 vs 1800) and better recent form (8 wins in his last 15 matches vs 7).

Player Comparison

1830.5 Elo 2035.8

1799.5 Elo (surface) 1893.8

417 Wins 136

285 Wins (surface) 69

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.898 Dominance ratio 0.930

83 Rank 7

38.3 Age 24.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Flavio Cobolli

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adrian Mannarino Flavio Cobolli

1st Serve In %

53.6%

57.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.4%

68.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.0%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.0%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.2%

44.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.33

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%

52.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%

67.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

51.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%

30.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.3%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adrian Mannarino Flavio Cobolli

Break Points Saved %

62.3%

61.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.6%

34.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.6%

67.5%

Break Points Converted %

47.4%

32.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Adrian Mannarino and Flavio Cobolli have never played each other.

Adrian Mannarino vs Flavio Cobolli — Prediction