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Adrian Mannarino vs Denis Shapovalov — Prediction

ATP Hard Chengdu · QF 04:00

Predicted probability

Adrian Mannarino

France

21.11%

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

78.89%

Average Odds

2.98  /  1.38

Market probability

31.65%  /  68.35%

Why This Prediction?

Denis Shapovalov is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1964 vs 1796), a higher Elo rating (1941 vs 1826) and a stronger serve (68.5% vs 64.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1825.8 Elo 1940.6
1795.6 Elo (surface) 1963.7
415 Wins 264
283 Wins (surface) 200
6 Last 15 form 9
1 Head-to-head wins 3
0.898 Dominance ratio 1.034
78 Rank 50
38.2 Age 27.4
left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Adrian Mannarino

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–4L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adrian Mannarino Denis Shapovalov

1st Serve In %

53.7%
55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.7%
70.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.4%
50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.3%
29.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.7%
48.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.46
0.35

Double Faults per Service Game

0.35
0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

56.7%
55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.9%
74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%
58.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.8%
31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.3%
50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.43
0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.20
0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adrian Mannarino Denis Shapovalov

Break Points Saved %

55.8%
58.1%

Break Points Converted %

30.2%
43.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

59.6%
59.1%

Break Points Converted %

47.4%
43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Adrian Mannarino 1 – 3 Denis Shapovalov

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-13

1. round

Denis Shapovalov #43

Adrian Mannarino #47

6-1 6-4
9 Aces 3
4 Double Faults 4
56 Service Points 60
37 First Serve In 33
27 First Serve Won 22
10 Second Serve Won 8
5 Break Points Saved 5
6 Break Points Faced 9
21 Winners 8
26 Unforced Errors 31
1.5 Average Odds 2.5
Hard Washington · 2024-07-29

R32

Denis Shapovalov #139

Adrian Mannarino #32

6-2 6-1
7 Aces 0
2 Double Faults 3
48 Service Points 40
35 First Serve In 20
30 First Serve Won 11
6 Second Serve Won 7
0 Break Points Saved 3
0 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Basel · 2017-10-23

R16

Adrian Mannarino #28

Denis Shapovalov #49

4-6 6-1 6-2
3 Aces 9
2 Double Faults 5
76 Service Points 76
47 First Serve In 40
30 First Serve Won 28
20 Second Serve Won 16
4 Break Points Saved 4
5 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Canada Masters · 2017-08-07

QF

Denis Shapovalov #143

Adrian Mannarino #42

2-6 6-3 6-4
9 Aces 0
7 Double Faults 4
101 Service Points 74
52 First Serve In 42
35 First Serve Won 28
26 Second Serve Won 20
8 Break Points Saved 2
11 Break Points Faced 5
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Adrian Mannarino — Last 10

W W L W L W L L L L

Denis Shapovalov — Last 10

W W L W W L W L L W