ATP tennis predict — Adrian Andreev vs Petr Nesterov

Challenger Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · QF 15:30

Predicted probability

Adrian Andreev

Bulgaria

48.20%

Petr Nesterov

Bulgaria

51.80%

Average Odds

2.14 / 1.65

Market probability

43.54% / 56.46%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1568.2 Elo 1602.0

1580.0 Elo (surface) 1598.4

116 Wins (Challenger) 35

75 Wins (surface) 26

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.810 Dominance ratio 0.786

1108 Rank 364

25.2 Age 23.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Adrian Andreev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Petr Nesterov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adrian Andreev Petr Nesterov

1st Serve In %

66.5%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

66.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.8%

37.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.9%

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.0%

56.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.9%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

64.4%

63.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.2%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

34.0%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.8%

44.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.20

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.24

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adrian Andreev Petr Nesterov

Break Points Saved %

44.4%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

38.0%

26.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

55.7%

49.4%

Break Points Converted %

36.7%

40.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Adrian Andreev 0 – 0 Petr Nesterov

Clay Plovdiv 2 challenger · 2026-08-07

QF

Petr Nesterov #364

Adrian Andreev #1108

6-4 6-1

0 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 1

45 Service Points 39

27 First Serve In 18

12 First Serve Won 16

12 Second Serve Won 18

2 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.1

Adrian Andreev vs Petr Nesterov — Prediction