ATP tennis predict — Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Jaime Faria

ATP Hard Tokyo · qualification - quarterfinal 07:50

Predicted probability

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Paraguay

27.06%

Jaime Faria

Portugal

72.94%

Average Odds

2.42 / 1.53

Market probability

38.73% / 61.27%

Why This Prediction?

Jaime Faria is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1852 vs 1650), a higher Elo rating (1948 vs 1861) and a stronger serve (68.0% vs 60.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1860.6 Elo 1948.1

1649.8 Elo (surface) 1852.4

22 Wins 48

8 Wins (surface) 18

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.026 Dominance ratio 1.200

56 Rank 61

22.4 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Jaime Faria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Jaime Faria

1st Serve In %

57.4%

60.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.6%

72.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.3%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.5%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.5%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.9%

57.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

76.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.8%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

35.5%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

54.4%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.18

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.27

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo Jaime Faria

Break Points Saved %

64.2%

63.8%

Break Points Converted %

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

54.1%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

50.8%

44.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo 0 – 1 Jaime Faria

Clay Rome Masters · 2026-05-06

Q1

Jaime Faria #119

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo #84

6-3 4-6 6-4

2 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 2

82 Service Points 86

59 First Serve In 57

46 First Serve Won 38

12 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 3

4 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Adolfo Daniel Vallejo vs Jaime Faria — Prediction