ATP tennis predict — Adam Walton vs Nicolas Mejia

ATP Hard Cincinnati · 1. round 21:30

Predicted probability

Adam Walton

Australia

66.85%

Nicolas Mejia

Colombia

33.15%

Average Odds

1.56 / 2.38

Market probability

60.41% / 39.59%

Why This Prediction?

Adam Walton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1754 vs 1593), a higher Elo rating (1762 vs 1700) and a stronger serve (69.0% vs 66.8% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1762.0 Elo 1699.5

1753.9 Elo (surface) 1593.1

46 Wins 21

34 Wins (surface) 11

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.269 Dominance ratio 1.158

97 Rank 129

27.3 Age 26.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Adam Walton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Nicolas Mejia

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adam Walton Nicolas Mejia

1st Serve In %

61.1%

57.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.5%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.60

0.47

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

56.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

69.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

54.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

33.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

49.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adam Walton Nicolas Mejia

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

62.0%

Break Points Converted %

42.3%

36.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.4%

63.9%

Break Points Converted %

48.4%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Adam Walton 0 – 0 Nicolas Mejia

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-14

1. round

Adam Walton #97

Nicolas Mejia #129

7-6 6-0

4 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 2

55 Service Points 68

36 First Serve In 42

25 First Serve Won 23

14 Second Serve Won 14

0 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 9

18 Winners 16

24 Unforced Errors 31

1.6 Average Odds 2.4

Adam Walton vs Nicolas Mejia — Prediction