ATP tennis predict — Adam Walton vs Marin Cilic

Challenger Hard Jinan challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Adam Walton

Australia

50.42%

Marin Cilic

Croatia

49.58%

Average Odds

2.08 / 1.66

Market probability

44.39% / 55.61%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1824.5 Elo 1913.3

1755.5 Elo (surface) 1865.8

118 Wins (Challenger) 45

114 Wins (surface) 11

12 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.927 Dominance ratio 1.254

98 Rank 80

27.5 Age 38.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Adam Walton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–7L · 30.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

35 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Marin Cilic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adam Walton Marin Cilic

1st Serve In %

62.9%

62.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.3%

71.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.4%

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

27.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.2%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.65

0.63

Double Faults per Service Game

0.14

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.1%

56.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

63.4%

80.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

55.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

55.7%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.58

1.02

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adam Walton Marin Cilic

Break Points Saved %

65.2%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

44.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

58.8%

72.1%

Break Points Converted %

55.1%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Adam Walton 0 – 1 Marin Cilic

Hard Basel · 2025-10-20

Q1

Marin Cilic #89

Adam Walton #74

6-4 6-1

11 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 4

43 Service Points 59

19 First Serve In 33

19 First Serve Won 21

17 Second Serve Won 11

0 Break Points Saved 5

0 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Adam Walton vs Marin Cilic — Prediction