ATP tennis predict — Adam Walton vs Alexandr Binda

Challenger Hard Jingshan challenger · qualification - round of 16 05:00

Predicted probability

Adam Walton

Australia

79.19%

Alexandr Binda

Italy

20.81%

Average Odds

1.05 / 8.83

Market probability

89.37% / 10.63%

Why This Prediction?

Adam Walton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1849 vs 1556), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1777 vs 1547) and more wins on hard courts (37 vs 0).

Player Comparison

1849.1 Elo 1555.9

1777.0 Elo (surface) 1547.3

115 Wins (Challenger) 31

111 Wins (surface) 28

13 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.927 Dominance ratio 1.186

97 Rank 493

27.4 Age 25.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Adam Walton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–6L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Alexandr Binda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-07-05.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adam Walton Alexandr Binda

1st Serve In %

61.1%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.5%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

54.9%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.1%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.60

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.15

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.1%

67.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.9%

77.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.3%

42.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.4%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.9%

55.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.65

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Adam Walton Alexandr Binda

Break Points Saved %

62.7%

—

Break Points Converted %

42.3%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.4%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

48.4%

40.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Adam Walton and Alexandr Binda have never played each other.

Adam Walton vs Alexandr Binda — Prediction